A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework.
To start, we have provided some background context as to why we built our framework and the existing knowledge we adapted, you can skip this and go straight to the explanation of the framework here.
If you are really time poor we have a 48 second video summary here.
For FAQs click here.
You can also request our document “User Guide: A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework” here.
Background to Our Framework.
Why are we publishing A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework?
The primary reason is to share our way of thinking so that prospective clients can see the shape of our process and better understand how we deliver outcomes. The second reason is that having been a recipient of so much robust thinking and creating from the broader foresight community, we feel a need to give back. The third reason is to open our work up to broader review and feedback so that we can become better practitioners.
Our framework is not new per se. It is an iteration of a number of existing frameworks and methods (all of whom we have referenced and acknowledged below) , combined with our own unique insights and experiences. The uniqueness of our framework lies in our selection, order, visualisation and use of the 5 components and 2 enablers. However, what sets us apart, the secret sauce so to say, is not the framework itself, but how we approach its implementation. The true magic lies in the way we use the tools and methods for each component, the way we adapt them to fit each moment, and the unique "recipe" we craft together with our clients.
Our framework is built to be modified, fine-tuned and adapted. It is not a static thing. It is a dynamic, evolving entity that constantly adapts to new challenges, changing environments and client objectives. This is what makes our framework and our work reliable and fresh - it's never stagnant, but always moving forward.
Below, we provide the source ideas, rationales and practical tips for how to use our framework effectively. These are not strict guidelines, but rather suggestions and starting points for you to tailor the framework to your specific needs and goals. Let's check it out!
What does A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework deliver?
A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework is designed to help organisations navigate uncertainty and prepare for a range of futures. It does this by following a structured process of activities that encourage exploration and critical thinking about how the changes we see in our world today, could develop in our futures.
It is, to use an often repeated phrase, "a journey not a destination". At its core the framework is not about outputs, although outputs are delivered, it is more about experiences and learning. It's about building futures thinking capability that can be applied continuously and flexibly to support strategic thinking, decision making and create options for a range of plausible futures.
A pioneer of experiential futures Stuart Candy wrote in 2017:
“…then a central challenge, perhaps indeed the central challenge, for the next generation of foresight practitioners will have less to do with generating and broadcasting ideas about the future, than it will have to do with designing circumstances or situations in which the collective intelligence and imagination of a community can come forth." Candy 2017
This idea resonated strongly with us in our initial futures work with clients and continues to shape our "North Star". More and more we find that the outputs of futures thinking like trend reports, scenarios etc are interesting but ultimately they are archived in virtual files and are never fully utilised to create real impact. It is the experience of developing these outputs that deliver far greater benefit to building the capabilities our clients need to navigate a fast changing world.
We say:
"To think about futures, you need to experience futures."
What are experiential futures?
Experiential futures is a methodology that combines systems thinking, design thinking, and experiential learning to create immersive experiences that allow individuals to explore possible future scenarios in a more holistic and inclusive way. This approach encourages participants to engage with the potential futures on a personal level, incorporating emotions and experiences into their understanding of the futures they may need to navigate. The purpose of experiential futures is to expand our thinking about futures and challenge our assumptions, biases, and mental models. By creating immersive experiences, it allows individuals to better understand and engage with potential challenges and opportunities that may arise in their futures. As a result, they develop enhanced capabilities to think, create, adapt and sustain performance in a rapidly changing and unpredictable world.
Who influenced the development of A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework?
There is a full reference list at the end of this article, however we want to call out a few of the key influencers of this framework.
Our use of a foresight radar to identify signals of change has been strongly influenced by our use of the Futures Platform™. The Futures Platform™ is a database of signals of change identified using academic grade methodologies. Whilst there are a number of similar products in the market we choose the Futures Platform™ because it has a strong, academic grade, methodology for identifying and curating its database of emerging change and trend phenomena. In addition the team at the Futures Platform™ are great to work with, plus we love Helsinki! 🇫🇮
We are fans of Stuart Candy's and Jake Dunagan's Experiential Futures Ladder and as such have used the scenario/situations combination described in that model in our work. The clear differentiation between scenarios and situations makes creating experiences so much easier. We also love the alliteration of the letter "s"!
The now closed Griffith Centre for Systems Innovation which has become The Good Shift has helped us better understand the role systems thinking can play in community engagement.
Early on in our foresight journey we discovered the work of Julian Bleeker and the team at Near Future Laboratory and the concept of design fiction. We call this component of our framework "souvenirs" to describe this idea that if you take a trip into a future you want to brig back some memories and artefacts that help you remember your trip. Whatever you call them we like their definition:
"Design fiction is the practice of creating tangible and evocative prototypes from possible near futures to help discover and represent the consequences of decision making." https://julianbleecker.com/designfiction/
So many wonderful conversations with incredibly smart people have shaped our work. Specifically we acknowledge our conversation with our friend Dr Nadya Patel in Bangkok in 2024 at the Asia Pacific Futures Conference. Nadya opened our eyes to the idea and benefits of intellectual sparring in education and design thinking. This was a missing component in earlier iterations of our framework and encapsulated the dynamic nature and tension in the conversations that futures thinking can evoke. Most excitingly it started with "s" and fitted perfectly with our frame's alliteration!
Finally, our clients have supported the creation of virtual, physical and mental spaces for us to create, practice and design a range of amazing futures. These spaces have enabled us to test ideas, create prototypes and bring together diverse groups of people to engage in meaningful futures thinking.
Within each component of the framework we also use a range of tools and methods developed by the thinkers and creators who have gone before us. We acknowledge and reference these tools in other pages on our website (see our Icons of Futures Thinking for a selection of our favourites) and also when we present them to clients. These tools help us to explore and communicate complex futures concepts in a more tangible and practical way, making them accessible to all.
insight & foresight
Scroll up ⬆️ to read the background to our framework.
Scroll down ⬇️ to explore the framework.
Our Framework.
The Frame.
The insight & foresight Futures Thinking Engagement Framework comprises 5 components and 2 enablers.
The 5 components are: 1. Signals, 2. Sense-making, 3. Scenarios, 4. Situations and 5. Souvenirs.
The 2 enablers are: a. Sparring and b. Spaces.
The framework components are worked through sequentially with each component building on the outputs of the previous one. Enablers support a deeper engagement with futures thinking and improve the quality of outputs.
Let's explore each component and enabler in the framework.
Signals.
Signals are current trends, events, and patterns that can indicate possible changes in our futures.
Signals are events, trends, or phenomena that can influence future outcomes. Important signals are often subtle and easy to overlook, they hold valuable insights into how our world may change over time. Identifying signals requires sharp observation and the ability to look beyond the obvious. This process involves collecting data from diverse sources, including news articles, social media, expert analyses, market trends, and consumer behaviour. The objective is to gather as many signals as possible to uncover patterns, identify emerging opportunities, and pinpoint key drivers of change that could have significant impact.
Sense-making.
Sense-making involves analysing and interpreting the signals to determine their potential impact on our futures.
Sense-making encompasses a variety of techniques aimed at exploring the context behind signals. It’s essential to determine whether a signal represents a one-time event or indicates a larger change driver. This process involves identifying and linking seemingly unrelated signals to form a more cohesive and insightful narrative. This is also the time to engage a broad cross section of opinions to assess the impact and probability of the signals identified. Rather than just spotting trends, sense-making dives deeper to uncover the underlying causes and motivations driving these signals, offering a clearer, more comprehensive understanding of the bigger picture. Sense-making is strongly aligned to organisational and geographical context.
In this component we also start to build plausible development pathways for high impact signals. This work attempts to map how the signals could develop over time and provides insight into the potential risks and opportunities that might be associated with each pathway.
Scenarios.
Scenarios are created from combinations of signals to represent different potential futures.
Scenarios are not predictions, but rather they are plausible and alternative narratives of what might happen in our futures. They are collections of signals that have developed at certain intensities that when combined, form a distinct scenario. Scenarios enable organisations to think beyond the limitations of current reality and explore possible outcomes that could impact their business. This helps them to be proactive rather than reactive, and to identify opportunities for change and growth.
Situations.
Situations are specific circumstances that may arise within the scenarios.
Situations allow participants to explore the potential consequences of each scenario and test their actions and reactions. It is a time to practically engage with each scenario to better understand the dynamics at play. It is a time to test how plans could adapt or change as various futures appear and to help identify shaping and hedging actions that will support today's decision making.
Situations play a crucial role in strategic thinking as they provide a platform for organisations to anticipate and prepare for potential future events. Through situational analysis, organisations can assess the impact of various scenarios on their operations, identify potential risks and opportunities, and develop plans to mitigate or capitalise on these situations.
Souvenirs.
Souvenirs are tangible items or memorable experiences that serve as reminders of a particular future event or place.
Souvenirs can range from physical objects, such as a postcard, magazine, pamphlet or photo to intangible memories and emotions that are associated with a journey into a future. Creating souvenirs allows participants to not only capture the essence of the futures explored, but to also reflect on their own thoughts and feelings towards them. It is a way to make the abstract idea of futures more concrete and personal.
Souvenirs serve as reminders of the futures explored. They act as tangible objects that can be revisited and shared with others, serving as conversation starters and catalysts for future discussions about potential scenarios and possibilities. In this sense, they become valuable tools for ongoing thinking and planning towards shaping desired futures.
Enabler: Sparring.
Sparring involves discussing and debating our futures thinking with others to gain a broad and diverse set of perspectives and insights.
Intellectual sparring is a vital tool in futures thinking, as it challenges our assumptions and biases, encouraging us to think beyond conventional perspectives. By engaging in thoughtful exchanges with others, we can explore potential futures from diverse viewpoints and uncover blind spots we might otherwise overlook.
Sparring fosters collaboration and co-creation, sparking fresh, innovative ideas. By exchanging and building upon ideas together, we can develop more comprehensive and resilient visions of our futures. This collaborative process not only strengthens the quality of our ideas but also cultivates a shared sense of ownership, motivating individuals to take meaningful action toward shaping a desired future.
Sparring builds trust among participants by promoting open, authentic dialogue. This trust strengthens relationships and partnerships, enhancing the credibility and reliability of the future visions and stories created by the team. Through intellectual sparring, we not only expand our thinking but also create better foundations for collective action and progress.
Enabler: Spaces.
Spaces refers to creating physical, virtual and mental space for futures thinking.
Without space, futures thinking is limited, constrained - a box ticking exercise. Physical space can be created through designated rooms or areas for futures thinking activities, such as workshops or collaborative workspaces. Virtual space can be created through online platforms or tools that facilitate discussions and idea sharing among individuals in different locations.
Mental space, on the other hand, involves creating a mindset open to exploring possibilities and challenging assumptions. This often requires breaking away from routine and carving out the time in your calendar for reflection and creative thinking. It also involves creating a culture that supports new and diverse ways of thinking and gives individuals the opportunity to remove themselves from their functional responsibilities and consider a bigger picture.
When combined these 5 components and 2 enablers form A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework that can be used to foster a culture of forward-looking and fresh thinking in any organisation. This framework is not a one-size-fits-all solution, but rather a starting point that can be adapted and customised to fit the unique needs and culture of an organisation.
insight & foresight
A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework explained in a 48 second video.
A video explaining the 5 components and 2 enablers of A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework by insight & foresight.
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Frequently Asked Questions about A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework.
How do the 5 components of A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework work together?
The 5 components of the Futures Thinking Engagement Framework work together in a cyclical and iterative process. Each component builds upon the other, creating a framework that supports continuous learning and exploration. For each component a series of activities generate insights and inform the next step in the process, creating a cohesive and focused approach to exploring potential futures. The segues and points of transition from one component to the next support a flow that builds upon the previous explorations, resulting in a more comprehensive and reliable understanding and engagement.
What are the outputs from each component of A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework?
In general, the outputs from each component of the Futures Thinking Engagement Framework include:
A table showing outputs of the insight & foresight Futures Thinking Engagement Framework.
Why does A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework use organic shapes to illustrate the components?
The use of organic shapes in the Futures Thinking Engagement Framework is intentional and reflects the dynamic, ever-evolving nature of futures thinking. Unlike rigid, linear processes, futures thinking requires flexibility and adaptability to navigate uncertainties and complexities. The fluidity of organic shapes captures this aspect and conveys a sense of movement and change.
The use of organic shapes encourages creativity and out-of-the-box thinking. As humans, we are naturally drawn to familiar patterns and structures, which can limit our ability to think innovatively. By using organic shapes, the framework asks us to break away from traditional thought patterns and explore new possibilities.
Organic shapes also represent interconnectedness and interdependence. In futures thinking, we must consider not only individual components but also how they interact with each other and their broader context. The fluid nature of organic shapes reflects this interconnectedness and reminds us to take a holistic approach in our thinking.
Last but by no means least, using organic shapes adds an element of playfulness and freshness to our framework. Futures thinking can often feel overwhelming and heavy, by incorporating organic shapes we hope to inject a sense of curiosity and excitement into the process.
Does A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework use AI?
Agentic AI, or AI agents, are being developed by many companies as a tool to fast track the identification of signals and creation of scenarios. These AI agents are programmed to scan and analyse vast amounts of data and information, generating plausible scenarios for a range of futures. They are a valuable tool because they can quickly process large amounts of information that would take humans much longer to analyse and interpret.
At insight & foresight we can see some value in agentic AI to fast track foresight work, however we still believe that the deepest, most valuable learning comes from being directly involved in the art of creating foresight. Getting hands on, real life experiences in the process of collecting, analysing and interpreting foresight data, making sense of the findings, creating scenario narratives and building futures artefacts from these insights allows individuals to develop a deeper understanding of the process and an enhanced capability to create high quality outputs . Within A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework AI agents can be used within various components to speed up output generation and also to test output validity and reliability. We would not recommend outsourcing whole components to AI, nor using AI agents for the whole process. We still believe that getting hands on with data and interacting with it in a more human way builds the experiences and wisdom which we need to develop long-term thinking capability that will stand the test of time.
How do I start using A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework?
A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework is, by its name, a framework or scaffolding within which futures thinking can be structured. It is not a prescriptive or rigid process, but instead offers a flexible approach that can be adapted to fit the specific needs and goals of an organisation. To start using the framework, here are some general steps to follow:
Start by familiarising yourself with the key concepts and principles of futures thinking. This includes understanding what futures thinking is, its importance in shaping our futures, and how it differs from traditional forecasting methods.
Identify your purpose for using futures thinking. What problem or challenge are you trying to address? What opportunities do you want to explore? Defining a clear purpose will help guide your use of the framework.
Gather a diverse group of individuals who will contribute to the futures thinking process. This can include experts in different fields, stakeholders, and individuals with unique perspectives. By including a diverse group, you will be able to generate a wider range of ideas and insights.
Use various techniques and tools to facilitate the futures thinking process. Be open to trying new methods and adapting them to fit your specific needs.
Don't limit yourself to one potential future outcome. Futures thinking is about exploring multiple possibilities and understanding their potential impact on your desired outcome or problem.
Remember that futures thinking is not about predicting a future with certainty, but rather about developing a deeper understanding of potential futures and using that knowledge to make more informed decisions in the present.
Stay curious and continuously seek out new information and insights. Futures are constantly evolving, so it's important to stay updated on emerging trends, technologies, economic developments, political and societal changes.
Be resilient and adaptable as you navigate through the uncertainties of your futures. Keep smiling, the ultimate objective is not to be right, it's to be prepared.
Finally, if you have got this far reading our post, you should reach out to us at insight & foresight. We facilitate futures thinking and can support you to build the capabilities you need.
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To receive a copy of our document “User Guide: A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework” please fill out this form.
References for A Futures Thinking Engagement Framework.
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