Futures Thinking Icon No. 4: Four Archetypes.

You should read this if… you are a CEO or board member looking for a clear, disciplined way to think beyond forecasts and stress‑test strategy against fundamentally different futures. This article introduces Jim Dator’s four scenario archetypes—Growth, Discipline, Transformation, and Decline—as a practical framework for strategic foresight, showing how these recurring patterns of change can be used to explore multiple plausible futures rather than betting on a single outcome. It explains how applying all four archetypes helps leaders challenge assumptions, surface blind spots, and improve strategic agility across planning, policy, and organisational development, strengthening decision‑making in the face of long‑term uncertainty.