Case Study: How Scenario Planning Transformed a Council’s Operations Plan Review.

case study

21 Nov

Executive Summary.

Midway through a challenging 5-year strategic roadmap, a large regional council sought to pause and recalibrate by holding a strategic planning session with its executive team. The goal was to look beyond the usual 12-month planning focus and consider plausible long-term futures spanning 5 to 10 years. This process aimed to expand creative thinking, challenge conventional decision-making patterns, and align strategic objectives with emerging opportunities and risks.

Using the Futures Platform™ database and structured foresight techniques like the STEEP framework and scenario planning tools, the council engaged in a two-day workshop that redefined their approach to strategy. The outcome was a reinvigorated executive team equipped with enhanced foresight skills, capable of proactive decision-making and committed to embedding futures thinking into their operations.

About the Client.

The organisation is a large regional council responsible for delivering critical services and initiatives to a diverse community. With a complex operating environment influenced by global trends, local challenges, and citizen expectations, long-term strategic planning is essential. The council’s executive team identified a pressing need to adapt their approach to decision-making, aiming to ensure resilience and relevance in a fast-changing world.

Challenges:

The council faced a number of challenges typical of organisations navigating uncertain times, including:

Breaking the Conventional Rhythm: The executive team recognised the limitations of a reactive, year-to-year operational focus. They needed a broader and longer-term perspective to effectively address paradigm shifts and emerging complexity.
Unexamined Assumptions: With traditional planning methods, many embedded assumptions about the future had not been evaluated against potential, evolving disruptions.
Fostering Innovation: The team wanted to encourage creative thinking and unconventional approaches while avoiding a slip back into what felt like “safe” or operationally tactical decision-making.
Organisational Alignment: Ensuring the broader council could internalise and support a forward-thinking strategy was essential for both buy-in and motivation.

Solution”

To meet these challenges, the council turned to structured foresight methodologies that combined rigorous data analysis with creative scenario planning. The process unfolded as follows:

Preparation with Futures Platform™ and STEEP Framework.

The Futures Platform™ database provided the foundation for understanding potential disruptions, offering insights into 22 emerging phenomena likely to impact the council over a 5 to 10-year horizon. These phenomena spanned society, technology, economy, environment, and politics (STEEP). Categorising insights within this framework allowed the council to view interconnections between trends and structure their analysis comprehensively.

The 22 phenomena were shared as pre-reading material with the executive team, ensuring participants entered the workshop informed and ready to engage deeply.

Experiential Two-Day Workshop.

The council’s two-day executive planning workshop was designed as an immersive environment where foresight methods were explored hands-on.

Key techniques included:

Prioritisation: Participants ranked the phenomena by their probability of occurrence and potential intensity of impact.
Futures Wheel: This exercise visually mapped out the implications of key trends, capturing both direct and secondary effects.
Change Drivers: Clustering phenomena into groups with similar dynamics helped identify overarching forces likely to influence the council’s future.
Scenario Creation: The team combined these clusters to develop four distinct future scenarios, each representing an alternative perspective of the operating environment shaped by various trends.
Design Fiction: Guided by the generated scenarios, participants engaged in building compelling narratives and visuals to make each future scenario tangible and relatable.
BAU Objectives Review: Finally, the council’s existing "Business as Usual" objectives were evaluated against the uncertainties revealed during the workshop, testing their continued relevance and adaptability to alternative futures.

Focus on Experiential Learning.

A deliberate shift from passive learning to experiential engagement played a central role in the workshop. Through exercises, group discussions, and debates, the team was cognitively and emotionally invested, leading to deeper insights and more meaningful outcomes.

Results:

The scenario planning initiative achieved far-reaching results that extended well beyond immediate operational gains.

Elevated Strategic Vision: The executive team embraced a strategic, rather than operational, mindset. This widened perspective allowed them to explore diverse scenarios with creativity and curiosity, enabling robust long-term planning.
Actionable Scenarios: The four alternative futures served as a foundation for ongoing adaptation. By exploring potential developments, including both opportunities and risks, the council could align their near-term strategies with plausible long-term outcomes.
Innovative Culture: Using tools like the Futures Wheel and Design Fiction fostered a collaborative and innovation-oriented team culture. Biases were challenged, and old assumptions gave way to refreshed thinking.
Proactive Operations Planning: A review of “Business as Usual” objectives proved instrumental in recognising areas requiring flexibility and refinement. Scenarios were seamlessly integrated into operational reviews, offering actionable foresight that was both strategic and practical.
Commitment to Futures Thinking: The council reaffirmed the ongoing value of foresight and expressed a commitment to building its capacity. Scenario planning techniques are now on track to become a regular feature of workshops and operations planning cycles.

Key Takeaways and Benefits:

Embedding Agility and Resilience in Strategy.

This case study demonstrates the power of integrating scenario planning into existing frameworks for operational and strategic planning. By focusing on emerging phenomena and leveraging innovative foresight tools, the council achieved a leap in decision-making agility.

Better Risk Management: The council’s proactive exploration of “what if” scenarios significantly enhanced their ability to anticipate potential risks and respond effectively.
Engaged Leadership Alignment: Through collaborative techniques, the leadership team emerged more united, motivated, and aligned on a common vision.
Strategic Adaptability: The use of futures thinking has equipped the council to reframe challenges as opportunities, ensuring ongoing relevancy amidst complexity.

By deeply embedding foresight practices, the council is now better positioned to fulfil its mission of serving the community while staying ahead of disruptions and leveraging emerging opportunities. Their success offers a compelling model for other organisations seeking to innovate and future-ready their decision-making processes.