Backcasting - a tool for planning and decision making.
In a Boardroom not far from today.....
Maria stared at the Board in front of her, feeling a mixture of excitement and nerves. She had been working on this plan for months, and now it was time to present it to the Board.
She took a deep breath and began to speak.
"Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for coming today." She could feel her heart racing as she spoke. "I am excited to present our long-term strategic plan."
She went on to describe the foresight process that she had gone through to develop the plan, highlighting the importance of futures intelligence, scenario planning, and backcasting. The Board listened attentively, intensely curious by Maria's presentation.
Finally, she came to the end of her presentation.
"So what do you think?" she asked nervously.
There was a long silence as the Board members considered her presentation. Finally, the Chair spoke.
"Maria, this is an excellent plan."
She could see the relief in Maria's eyes.
"But we have one question for you..."
The Chair paused, making sure she had everyone's attention.
"How do we know this is the right plan? How can we be sure that it will take us where we want to go?"
Maria took a deep breath. She had been expecting this question.
"Foresight is not about predicting the future," she began. "It's about understanding the present and shaping our futures. Futures intelligence, scenario planning, and backcasting are the foresight tools that helped us think more expansively, plan with more adaptability and be ready for a range of futures. It also helps us proactively influence what futures appear."
The Board asked for more information on backcasting.
Maria went on to explain how backcasting works, starting with the desired futures and then working back to the present to assess what would be required to get there.
"It's a way of thinking about futures that is open to new and imaginative ideas," she concluded. "And it can help us make sure that we are on the right track."
The Board members nodded, clearly impressed. They thanked Maria for her work.
Maria breathed a sigh of relief. She had done it. And she knew that backcasting would be a valuable tool in shaping her organisation's impact and future growth over the next 5 to 10 years.
What is backcasting?
Backcasting is a highly effective planning and decision-making technique that starts by defining desired futures, then examining what would be required to get there. It can help leaders to come up with more creative ideas — allowing them to build stronger and more resilient organisational plans.
Backcasting is a type of foresight tool that involves visioning a specific future situation and then working back to identify the steps that would need to be taken to get there. It was first written about by John B. Robinson in 1982 (1) and has since been used as a tool for planning everything from individual projects to large-scale social change initiatives. Backcasting can be an effective way to create a realistic and achievable plan because it forces you to think about all of the necessary steps along the way, rather than just focusing on the end goal.
At its core, backcasting is a method of analysis that is concerned with how desired futures can be attained, as opposed to predicting what is likely to happen based on past results. Backcasting involves working back from the desired end-point to the present day to identify the actions that would be required to reach a future state. This distinguishes backcasting from forecasting, which is typically focused on predicting what is likely to happen without considering what might change. Backcasting is a valuable tool for for-purpose organisations that are concerned with making positive changes in the world.
Why is backcasting important?
In an ever-changing, complex world, backcasting provides a way to manage change and uncertainty. It helps us to identify the steps we need to take to get from where we are now to where we want to be.
Managing change in the world of backcasting has many benefits, including a more open dialogue about the future. In backcasting, all ideas are welcomed, and decisions can be altered or reversed as new possibilities come to light.
Nobody can predict with certainty what is coming next. The backcasting process helps stakeholders identify today what they need to do to make the future they want tomorrow a reality.
Backcasting is an important tool for planning and decision-making in an ever-changing, complex world. It helps us to identify the steps we need to take to get from where we are now to where we want to be. backcasting provides a way to manage change and uncertainty and can help us to make the future we want tomorrow a reality.
When should backcasting be used?
Backcasting is a valuable tool for planning and decision-making. In particular, backcasting offers a robust process and outcomes when addressing complex problems, including when incremental changes are not going to be enough, externalities (unpriced costs or benefits) exist, and/or dominant trends are playing a disproportionate role in change. Backcasting can help identify creative solutions to these problems. It can also help assess the feasibility of these solutions and identify any potential barriers to their implementation. By backcasting from a desired future state, we can develop a roadmap for change that is more likely to succeed.
How is backcasting done?
Backcasting typically involves four steps:
Define the desired future state – this could be a vision or goal that is to be achieved.
Develop scenarios – what are the different ways in which the future state could be reached? What are the key drivers and uncertainties that could affect these scenarios?
Identify pathways – based on the scenarios, what are the steps required to achieve the desired future state?
Develop and implement a plan – based on the pathways, what is the best way to achieve the desired future state?
Backcasting is a powerful tool that can be used to manage change and uncertainty. It can help us to identify the steps we need to take to get from where we are now to where we want to be. If you’re facing a complex challenge, backcasting could be the answer.
References
(1) Robinson, J.B., "Energy Backcasting: A Proposed Method of Policy Analysis", Energy Policy, Vol.10, No.4 (December 1982), pp. 337–345.
