You should read this if… you are a leader who wants to make better decisions by clearly distinguishing between what can be managed and what must be navigated. This article explains the difference between business risk and uncertainty, showing how risk involves known variables that can be analysed and mitigated, while uncertainty reflects unknown or unknowable conditions that cannot be reliably predicted. It argues that conflating the two leads to false confidence and fragile strategies, and that leaders who recognise uncertainty as a distinct challenge are better equipped to use foresight, expand options, and make more resilient decisions in complex and rapidly changing environments.

Innovation is a tricky beast. It's not always clear that the risks outweigh the rewards. For those of us in for-purpose organisations, getting the business case right to fund innovation is critical; uncertainty can be a roadblock, but it doesn't have to be.