Two Frames for Planning & Decision Making.
A video outlining 2 important frames to consider when making decisions in business.
Updated 16 May 2025
Planning and decision-making are never simple tasks, even during the best of times. But in today's world, marked by uncertainty and rapid change, these processes have become even more challenging. Leaders are finding themselves navigating an increasingly complex landscape where traditional methods may no longer yield reliable results.
To make effective decisions and craft plans that deliver results, it’s essential for leaders to adopt a new mindset and robust frameworks that help clarify assumptions, consider the realities of implementation, and improve outcomes. Here, we’ll explore two frames for better planning and decision-making, discuss the interconnected role of assumptions and reality, and share how foresight tools can help strengthen future strategies.
Frames to Strengthen Planning and Decision-Making.
There are two specific frames that we rely on when assisting teams with their planning and decision-making processes. These frameworks uncover key variables in a plan’s success and how to improve its adaptability to real-world conditions.
Frame 1: Plans Are Built on Knowledge and Assumptions.
Plans = Knowledge + Assumptions
All plans are essentially a combination of two things: knowledge and assumptions. Understanding these components and their differences allows leaders to better evaluate the strength of their strategies.
Knowledge refers to the facts, data, and proven skills the organization has accumulated through experience or education. These are the elements that the team is confident in based on prior performance or measurable results.
Assumptions, on the other hand, are the predictions or beliefs about future conditions. These include expectations about market developments, customer behavior, economic trends, or competitor actions. Assumptions are inherently uncertain and require clarity, as they carry a greater risk of being incorrect.
A good plan makes a clear distinction between knowledge and assumptions. While leaders are often adept at identifying and utilising past data (knowledge), they may struggle to articulate assumptions with the same confidence. This lack of clarity can lead to vulnerabilities in the planning process and a reduced capacity to adapt when realities shift.
Frame 2: The Role of Reality in Success.
Performance = Plans x Reality
Susan Scott, in her book Fierce Conversations, famously reminds readers that “No plan survives its collision with reality, and reality has a habit of shifting.” This statement underscores the dynamic nature of the real world and how it plays a crucial role in determining the success of any plan.
Using this frame, the success of any plan is a product of the plan's robustness and the reality it encounters.
A neutral reality ensures the plan delivers as expected.
A supportive reality allows the plan to outperform.
An unsupportive reality challenges the plan, often leading to undesired outcomes.
This highlights the importance of building flexibility into strategies. The multiplier effect of reality cannot be ignored, and leaders who account for a range of potential realities can better adapt and thrive, even amid uncertainty.
How Assumptions and Reality Are Interconnected.
The two critical variables identified in these frames are assumptions and reality. They are deeply interconnected and play a decisive role in determining strategic outcomes. Assumptions shape the way organisations prepare for their futures, and they influence how well their plans align with eventual realities.
The longer the time horizon of a plan, the more critical it becomes to create more accurate assumptions. Over time, uncertainty increases, making it both more challenging and more essential to refine these initial assumptions.
When a plan encounters the real conditions of the market or environment, it’s these assumptions that influence the outcome. Incorrect or vague assumptions create vulnerabilities that reduce performance. Conversely, well-informed and evidence-based assumptions provide a firm foundation for resilient performance, even in challenging contexts.
Foresight Tools for Strengthening Plans.
Leaders can optimise assumptions and better prepare for future realities by incorporating strategic foresight tools into their planning processes. Foresight tools go beyond traditional data analysis to explore emerging trends and potential disruptions, offering organizations a structured way to address uncertainty.
Benefits of Foresight-Oriented Planning
Improved Assumptions: Foresight tools help identify and evaluate potential future conditions in a more comprehensive manner. By leveraging scenario planning, trend analysis, and predictive modeling, leaders gain a clearer picture of the possibilities, enabling them to create robust assumptions.
Enhanced Flexibility: Foresight encourages adaptive strategies that remain effective across a range of outcomes. This allows organizations to pivot and respond to unexpected developments without abandoning their overarching goals.
Broader Perspectives: Foresight helps decision-makers break out of siloed thinking by promoting cross-industry and global perspectives. Understanding broader trends increases awareness of how external forces, such as geopolitical shifts or technological advances, might impact their plans.
Risk Mitigation: By considering multiple possible pathways, foresight reduces the likelihood of being blindsided by future developments, ultimately enhancing risk management efforts.
Actionable Steps for Leaders
Adopt tools like scenario planning to evaluate how multiple potential futures might unfold.
Collaborate with cross-functional teams to explore diverse perspectives.
Leverage analytics to identify emerging trends that might influence your industry.
Build assumptions into your planning framework as explicit, testable components.
Regularly monitor changes in market conditions and adjust your strategies proactively.
Adapting to Today’s Challenges.
As the world changes at an unprecedented pace, relying solely on past experience is no longer enough to succeed. Leaders must evolve their planning and decision-making approaches to acknowledge the importance of both assumptions and reality in shaping performance.
By using frameworks that clarify knowledge versus assumptions and accounts for the real-world factors shaping outcomes, organisations can create plans that are not only actionable but adaptable. Adding foresight tools into this process ensures that your assumptions are stronger, your plans are more flexible, and your future performance is optimised.
Are you ready to take the complexity out of decision making and set your organisation up for long-term success? Start exploring our futures thinking engagement framework today.
