Case Study: Building Scenarios to Expand Thinking.

case study

30 June

Executive Summary.

Faced with challenges in recruiting qualified staff and adapting to rapid technological advancements, a technical services company sought to transform its strategic planning approach. The company initiated a foresight project that employed innovative tools such as the Futures Platform™ database, a leadership survey, scenario narratives, and collaborative report discussions. By broadening leadership perspectives and fostering creative thinking, the process enhanced the company’s strategic outlook. This approach empowered the leadership team to explore the interplay between people and technology and prepare for a range of plausible futures. The resulting insights were pivotal in enhancing strategic agility, driving informed decision-making, and fostering company-wide alignment.

About the Client.

The organisation operates within the technical services sector, catering to a well-established and stable customer base. Its offerings align with consistent market demand, and a strong brand presence positions the company for significant growth opportunities. However, changes in workforce dynamics and technological disruptions posed potential challenges to the company’s pace of growth and competitive stance.

Challenges:

The company identified two critical challenges that required immediate attention for ensuring sustained growth and success:

Workforce Constraints: The ability to recruit and retain suitably qualified staff represented a significant bottleneck for expanding operations.
Technological Disruptions: Automation and advancements in artificial intelligence were beginning to reshape the industry landscape. These innovations held the potential to both streamline internal processes and revolutionise core services, but they also lowered barriers to entry for competitors deploying technology-driven systems to offer faster, cost-effective services.

These factors raised a vital question for the leadership team to explore:

“What could the futures of people and technology look like in our industry, and what could this mean for our business?”

Solution:

The company’s response was to commission a multi-stage foresight project designed to uncover emerging shifts and inspire strategic thinking within its leadership team.

Stage 1: Identifying Emerging Change and Trends.

Using the Futures Platform™ database, 20 emerging phenomena were selected in collaboration with the company’s Managing Director. These trends were chosen to reflect the most relevant disruptions and opportunities over a long-term horizon.

Stage 2: Leadership Team Survey.

A tailored foresight radar was employed to evaluate the chosen phenomena. The leadership team assessed each trend for its likelihood of occurrence and the potential impact on business operations. Additionally, the team’s collective optimism was measured using the Revised Life Orientation Test (LOT-R)*, providing a benchmark for their strategic outlook.

Stage 3: Creating Scenario Narratives.

The survey results were synthesised to identify key change drivers. These change drivers were used to construct four distinct scenario narratives, each illustrating a plausible future shaped by the interplay of people and technology in the industry.

Stage 4: Report Presentation and Reflection.

The final report consolidated all findings, including the scenarios, survey data, and methodologies. This comprehensive output was presented to the leadership team during a collaborative session, fostering reflection and discussion on strategic implications.

Results:

The foresight process delivered significant outcomes that strengthened the company’s strategic capabilities:

Broadened Perspectives: The leadership team gained a nuanced understanding of how people-technology combinations might evolve, challenging entrenched assumptions and stimulating fresh discussions about the future.
Innovative Tools for Exploration: The Futures Platform™ foresight radar was highly valued for its ability to visualise complex data. It enabled efficient and engaging exploration of trends, quickly pinpointing areas of high impact.
Collective Optimism Benchmarking: Measuring the team’s optimism using LOT-R helped frame their futures thinking in a positive yet realistic manner, supporting higher confidence in exploring various scenarios.
Actionable Scenario Narratives: The scenario narratives provided a safe and structured environment to assess and debate diverse points of view. The rigorous blend of quantitative data and imaginative storytelling ensured even highly creative scenarios felt credible and thought-provoking.
Company-Wide Engagement: Beyond the leadership sessions, insight outputs were shared across the organisation. Broader staff teams built on the scenarios to ideate and explore strategic opportunities, driving company-wide alignment.
Enhanced Strategic Agility: Trends identified as highly impactful are now reviewed at regular leadership meetings. Additionally, the company has initiated plans for a more advanced foresight project to inform its upcoming strategic review.

Key Takeaways:

Why Foresight Matters.

This case study exemplifies the value of embedding foresight methodologies into strategic planning to address workforce and technological challenges. By proactively exploring a spectrum of potential changes, the company ensured its ability to anticipate, adapt, and thrive amidst industry disruption.

Benefits Realised:

Improved Decision Agility: Leadership’s expanded perspective ensures quicker, more adaptive responses to industry shifts.
Strategic Flexibility: The scenario narratives provide a robust framework for navigating uncertainty.
Cohesive Leadership: Shared understanding and alignment on potential futures drive strategic unity.
Engaged Workforce: Broader organisational collaboration facilitates creative ideation across all levels.

The initiative underscores the importance of integrating structured foresight practices within business operations. By transforming futures thinking into practical and actionable strategies, the company is set to lead confidently through an unpredictable yet opportunity-rich environment.

*Revised Life Orientation Test LOT-R. Reference: Scheier, M. F., Carver, C. S., & Bridges, M. W. (1994) A reevaluation of the Life Orientation Test. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(6), 1063–1078